This still sounds like an unrealistically low outflow figure to some folks (like me):
The European Leadership Network has published a report titled "Dangerous Brinkmanship: Close Military Encounters Between Russia And The West In 2014" in which it outlines the "visible increase" in the "intensity and gravity of incidents involving Russian and Western militaries and security agencies." It describes the situation as "ripe with potential for escalation."
Among its assertions:
"This upsurge of activity on all sides and the subsequent increased need to collect intelligence, combined with the general deterioration of the relationship between Russia and the West, has increased the likelihood, and perhaps certainty, that more of these less-than-friendly encounters between the militaries involved will take place.
"The increased number and gravity of incidents described also points [sic] to a disturbing dynamic. The Russian armed forces and security agencies seem to have been authorized and encouraged to act in a much more aggressive way towards NATO countries, Sweden and Finland. Since this appears to be deliberate policy, Russia is probably pursuing multiple objectives.
"At the military level, it may be initiating and using such incidents to observe patterns of response and test the preparedness of specific elements of national and allied defence systems, as well as levels of cooperation between NATO Allies and partners. Perhaps equally important, Russian actions may serve propaganda-related and political aims. They serve as a demonstration of Russia's capability to effectively use force for intimidation and coercion, particularly against its immediate neighbours. With regard to non-NATO Finland and Sweden, they may bring home the message that further integration or membership in NATO would cause further Russian harassment."
It adds, ominously:
"This mix of beefed-up military postures along the NATO-Russia border, more aggressive Russian activities, and the readiness of Western forces to show resolve in the face of the challenge, is ripe with potential for escalation. In the current environment, any incident that results in a loss of life or in extensive damage to one side or the other would be likely to provoke a response involving an increased alert level, higher tempo of military operations in border regions, or even direct punitive military action. This could feed a spiral of growing tensions that may be difficult for any side to completely control or stop."
Filling in a bit more on Berlin's warning to Moscow this morning:
German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier says that the situation in eastern Ukraine is deteriorating and that all sides, including Russia, must adhere to a September 5 truce agreement.
Steinmeier spoke in the Kazakh capital Astana on November 10, a day after the European Union and the United States voiced deep concern over reports of large convoys of troops and military vehicles moving through territory controlled by pro-Russian rebels.
"Unfortunately, the situation is again serious. I now think that we must call upon all those involved in this conflict, as well as the Russian side, to return again to the terms of the Minsk protocol," Steinmeier told a news conference during a visit to Kazakhstan.
Some of the most intense shelling since the cease-fire occurred in the Donetsk province on November 9.
German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier says that the situation in Ukraine is "serious again" and that all sides, including Russia, must adhere to the terms of a September 5 truce agreement. -- REUTERS
More from AFP:
Several columns of heavy armour on Monday headed through rebel-territory to the separatist stronghold of Donetsk in east Ukraine, an AFP journalist said, as fears mounted of a return to all-out fighting.
An AFP journalist saw a total of 21 trucks, six tanks and 14 howitzer cannons driving westwards in the direction of rebel frontline positions.