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U.S. And Iran-Backed Huthis Engaged In High-Stakes Fight Tehran Wants To Avoid

Huthi fighters in the Huthi-controlled capital of Yemen, Sanaa (file photo)
Huthi fighters in the Huthi-controlled capital of Yemen, Sanaa (file photo)

It is not only missiles that are being lobbed as U.S. and U.K. air strikes aim to stop the Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen from targeting ships in a key global trade route -- mutual threats of continued attacks are flying around, too.

The question is how far each side might go in carrying out their warnings without drawing Tehran into a broader Middle East conflict in defense of the Huthis, whose sustained attacks on maritime shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden led to its redesignation as a terrorist organization by Washington last week.

"Our aim remains to de-escalate tensions and restore stability in the Red Sea," the United States and the United Kingdom said in a joint statement following their latest round of air strikes on Huthi targets in Yemen on January 21. "But let us reiterate our warning to [the] Huthi leadership: we will not hesitate to defend lives and the free flow of commerce in one of the world’s most critical waterways in the face of continued threats."

The Huthis responded with vows to continue their war against what they called Israel's "genocide" of the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.

"The American-British aggression will only increase the Yemeni people’s determination to carry out their moral and humanitarian responsibilities toward the oppressed in Gaza," said Muhammad al-Bukhaiti, a senior Huthi political official.

"These attacks will not go unanswered and unpunished," said Huthi military spokesman Yahya Saree.

On cue, the two sides clashed again on January 24 when the Huthis said they fired ballistic missiles at several U.S. warships protecting U.S. commercial vessels transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait off the coast of Yemen. U.S. Central Command said three anti-ship missiles were fired at a U.S.-flagged container ship and that two were shot down by a U.S. missile destroyer while the third fell into the Gulf of Aden.

With the stage set for more such encounters, Iran's open backing and clandestine arming of the Huthis looms large. While continuing to state its support for the Huthis, Tehran has continued to deny directing their actions or providing them with weapons. At the same time, Iran has showcased its own advanced missile capabilities as a warning of the strength it could bring to a broader Middle East conflict.

The United States, emphasizing that the goal is to de-escalate tensions in the region, appears to be focusing on preventing the Huthis from obtaining more arms and funding. In addition to returning the Huthis to its list of terrorist groups, Washington said on January 16 that it had seized Iranian weapons bound for the Huthis in a raid in the Arabian Sea.

The U.S. Navy responds to Huthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea earlier this month.
The U.S. Navy responds to Huthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea earlier this month.

The United States and United Kingdom also appear to be focusing on precision strikes on the Huthis' military infrastructure while avoiding extensive human casualties or a larger operation that could heighten Iran's ire.

On January 24, the Pentagon clarified that, despite the U.S. strikes in Yemen, "we are not at war in the Middle East" and the focus is on deterrence and preventing a broader conflict.

"The United States is only using a very small portion of what it's capable of against the Huthis right now," said Kenneth Katzman, a senior adviser for the New York-based Soufan Group intelligence consultancy, and expert on geopolitics in the Middle East.

Terrorist Designation

The effectiveness of Washington's restoration on January 17 of the Huthis' terrorist organization label and accompanying U.S. sanctions -- which was removed early last year in recognition of the dire humanitarian situation in Yemen and to foster dialogue aimed at ending the Yemeni civil war involving the Huthis and the country's Saudi-backed government forces -- is "marginal," according to Katzman.

"They don't really use the international banking system and are very much cut off," Katzman said. "They get their arms from Iran, which is under extremely heavy sanctions and is certainly not going to be deterred from trying to ship them more weapons by this designation."

But the strikes being carried out by the United States and the United Kingdom, with the support of Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, are another matter.

The January 21 strikes against eight Huthi targets -- followed shortly afterward by what was the ninth attack overall -- were intended to disrupt and degrade the group's capabilities to threaten global trade. They were a response to more than 30 attacks on international and commercial vessels since mid-November and were the largest strikes since a similar coalition operation on January 11.

Such strikes against the Huthis "have the potential to deter them and to degrade them, but it's going to take many more strikes, and I think the U.S. is preparing for that," Katzman said. "You're not going to degrade their capabilities in one or two volleys or even several volleys, it's going to take months."

The Huthis have significant experience in riding out aerial strikes, having been under relentless bombardment by a Saudi-led military collation during the nine-year Yemeni civil war, in which fighting has ended owing to a UN-brokered cease-fire in early 2022 that the warring parties recommitted to in December.

"They weathered that pretty well," said Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense analyst with the global intelligence company Janes.

"On the battlefield, airpower can still be fairly decisive," Binnie said, noting that air strikes were critical in thwarting Huthi offensives during the Yemeni civil war. "But in terms of the Huthis' overall ability to weather the air campaign of the Saudi-led coalition, they did that fine, from their point of view."

Since the cease-fire, Binnie said, the situation may have changed somewhat as the Huthis built up their forces, with more advanced missiles and aging tanks -- a heavier presence that "might make them a bit more vulnerable."

"But I don't think they will, at the same time, have any problem reverting to a lighter force that is more resilient to air strikes as they have been in the past," Binnie said.

Both Binnie and Katzman suggested that the Huthis appear willing to sustain battlefield losses in pursuit of their aims, which makes the group difficult to deter from the air.

A cargo ship seized by Huthis in the Red Sea in November 2023.
A cargo ship seized by Huthis in the Red Sea in November 2023.

The Huthis have clearly displayed their intent on continuing to disrupt maritime shipping in the Red Sea, which they claim has targeted only vessels linked to Israel despite evidence to the contrary, until there is a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip.

This has brought the Huthis' complicated relationship with Iran under intense scrutiny.

'Axis Of Resistance'

The Huthis have established themselves as a potent element of Iran's so-called "axis of resistance" against Israel and the United States, as well as against Tehran's regional archrival, Saudi Arabia.

But analysts who spoke to RFE/RL widely dismissed the idea that the Huthis are a direct Iranian proxy, describing the relationship as more one of mutual benefit in which the Huthis can be belligerent and go beyond what Tehran wants them to.

While accused by Western states and UN experts of secretly shipping arms to the Huthis and other members of the axis of resistance, Iran has portrayed the loose-knit band of proxies and partners and militant groups as independent in their decision-making.

The grouping includes the Iran-backed Hamas -- the U.S. and EU designated terrorist group whose attack on Israel sparked the war in the Gaza Strip -- and Lebanese Hizballah -- a Iranian proxy and U.S. designated terrorist group that, like the Huthis, has launched strikes against Israel in defense of Hamas.

"The success of the axis of resistance ... is that since Tehran has either created or co-opted these groups, there is more often than not fusion rather than tension," between members of the network and Iran, explained Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.

But the relationship is not simply about "Iran telling its proxies to jump and them saying how high," Taleblu said. "It’s about Iran’s ability to find and materially support those who are willing to or can be persuaded to shoot at those Tehran wants to shoot at."

Iran's interest in a certain axis member's success in a given area and its perception of how endangered that partner might be, could play a crucial role in Tehran's willingness to come to their defense, according to Taleblu.

Middle East observers who spoke to RFE/RL suggested that it would take a significant escalation -- an existential threat to Tehran itself or a proxy, like Lebanese Hizballah -- for Iran to become directly involved.

"The Islamic republic would react differently to the near eradication of Hizballah which it created, versus Hamas, which it co-opted," Taleblu said. "Context is key."

"Iran is doing what it feels it can to try to keep the United States at bay," Katzman said, singling out the missile strikes carried out on targets this month in Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan that were widely seen as a warning to Israel and the United States of Tehran's growing military capabilities. Iran is "trying to show support for the Huthis without getting dragged in."

Iran is believed to have members of its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps on the ground in Yemen. Tehran also continues to be accused of delivering arms to the Huthis, and at the start of the year deployed a ship to the Gulf of Aden in a show of support for the Huthis before withdrawing it after the U.S.-led coalition launched strikes in Yemen on January 11.

"So, they are helping," Katzman said, "but I think they are trying to do it as quietly and as under the radar as possible.

A U.S.-led ground operation against the Huthis, if it came to that, could change Iran's calculations. "Then Iran might deploy forces to help them out," Katzman said.

More News

Iran Port Explosion Death Toll Hits 70 As Authorities Blame 'Negligence'

A rescue worker stands in front of burned vehicles after a massive explosion and fire rocked the Shahid Rajaei port near the southern port city of Bandar Abbas, Iran, on April 26
A rescue worker stands in front of burned vehicles after a massive explosion and fire rocked the Shahid Rajaei port near the southern port city of Bandar Abbas, Iran, on April 26

The death toll from a massive explosion at Iran’s key Shahid Rajaei port has hit 70, local authorities said, as the interior minister blamed “negligence” for the incident, which injured more than 1,000 people.

Eskandar Momeni told Iranian state television late on April 28 that “noncompliance with safety precautions and negligence” had caused the incident, though it was not immediately clear what started the fire at the hazardous and chemical materials storage depot.

Momeni said several “culprits have been identified and summoned” but did not share further details.

Mehrdad Hassanzadeh, the director of the crisis management office in the southern Hormozgan Province where the port is located, told state television that most of the injured had already been released from hospital.

Iran Port Fire Under Control After Dozens Killed
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On April 27, a day after the explosion happened, Hossein Zafari, a spokesman for Iran's crisis management organization, appeared to blame the blast on poor storage of chemicals in containers at the port.

Open-source data suggests that Iran took shipments of chemical ingredients from China used in missile fuel at the port in February and March. However, an Iranian Defense Ministry spokesman has denied that any cargo used for military use, including missile fuel, was being stored at the blast site.

The New York Times quoted an unnamed source with ties to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps as saying the substance that exploded was sodium perchlorate, a key component in solid missile fuel.

Amid mounting criticism of officials over the incident, renowned Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi called for a “free and transparent referendum under international supervision to restore sovereignty to the people.”

In a post on Instagram, Panahi described the explosion as a symbol of “the collapse of a regime that has led Iran into ruin for nearly half a century.”

Iran Accuses Israel's Netanyahu Of Trying To Derail Nuclear Talks

US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington, D.C., on April 7.
US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington, D.C., on April 7.

Iran's top diplomat has accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of trying to dictate US policy toward Iran after the premier renewed his call for the full dismantlement of Tehran's nuclear program.

Iranian and US negotiators concluded a third round of indirect talks over Iran's nuclear program on April 26, with a fourth round scheduled for May 3, likely in a European country.

Speaking in Jerusalem a day after the talks, Netanyahu said any deal with Iran must aim for the complete dismantling of the nuclear program and also address Tehran's missile capabilities.

"The real deal that works is the deal which removes Iran's capacity to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons," Netanyahu said, adding that a good agreement should also "bring in the prevention of ballistic missiles."

Writing on X, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said it was "striking…how brazenly Netanyahu is now dictating what President Trump can and cannot do in his diplomacy with Iran."

The Iranian diplomat maintained that his country was "strong and confident enough" to "thwart any attempt by malicious external actors to sabotage its foreign policy or dictate its course."

"We can only hope our US counterparts are equally steadfast," he added.

Netanyahu's comment came after a deadly explosion hit Iran’s Shahid Rajaei port, killing at least 46 people and injuring more than 1,000.

Some speculate that the explosion was linked to a shipment of a chemical ingredient used to make ballistic missile fuel, though Iran denies any sort of fuel was being stored in the container terminal.

Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that the sharp orange color of the initial fire was consistent with burning sodium perchlorate, a component used in rocket fuel. Open-source data suggests Iran took shipments of the chemical at the port earlier this year.

According to various reports, the Donald Trump administration previously held Netanyahu back from launching strikes on Tehran's nuclear facilities. However, the US president has said he himself would be "leading the pack" toward war with Iran if he cannot clinch a deal.

Ali Shamkhani, a senior aide to Iran's supreme leader and former national security adviser, warned on April 28 that Israel would face "unimaginable consequences" if it attacked Iran's nuclear sites.

"The question is: Are these threats the result of Israel acting on its own, or are they coordinated with Trump to push forward negotiations with Iran?" he wrote on X.

Iran Port Fire Under Control After Dozens Killed

Iran Port Fire Under Control After Dozens Killed
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A massive explosion at Iran's key commercial port near the city of Bandar Abbas has killed at least 25 people and injured hundreds. The explosion that triggered the fire is being investigated while media reports are suggesting chemicals used in rocket fuel may have been the cause. Iranian authorities said the fire was under control after a day of burning at the Shahid Rajaei port.

Updated

Iran Port Explosion That Killed Dozens Blamed On Unregistered Rocket Fuel

Containers burn on April 27 at the site of a massive explosion and fire that rocked a port near the southern port city of Bandar Abbas, Iran.
Containers burn on April 27 at the site of a massive explosion and fire that rocked a port near the southern port city of Bandar Abbas, Iran.

A massive explosion purportedly linked to a shipment of a chemical ingredient used to make missile propellant has killed at least 40 people and injured more than 1,000 others in the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas.

Authorities in Iran offered no clear explanation for what caused the April 26 blast at the Shahid Rajaei port, although independent experts said it appeared to be due to the improper storage of sodium perchlorate, a component used in rocket fuel.

On April 27, state media reported that the blast was now under control.

Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian visited with those some of the injured and told local officials that “we have to find out why it happened,” according to the government website.

The head of the Iranian Red Crescent Society, Pir Hossein Kolivand, said 190 of those injured remained hospitalized as of April 27.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered security and judicial officials to investigate "any negligence or deliberateness" in the incident.

The Shahid Rajaei port is Iran's busiest, processing up to 80 percent of the country's shipping traffic.

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Hossein Zafari, a spokesman for Iran's crisis management organization, appeared to blame the explosion on poor storage of chemicals in containers at the port.

"The cause of the explosion was the chemicals inside the containers," he told Iran's ILNA news agency.

"Previously, the director general of crisis management had given warnings to this port during their visits and had pointed out the possibility of danger," Zafari said.

According to the private security firm Ambrey, the port had received a shipment of “sodium perchlorate rocket fuel” in March, which was going to be used to replenish Iran’s missile stocks after being depleted by its direct attacks on Israel during the war with Hamas -- which is designated as a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union -- in the Gaza Strip.

Tehran has not acknowledged taking the shipment, but ship-tracking data obtained by the Associated Press shows vessels believed to be carrying the chemical in the vicinity of the port in March.

Iran Launches Investigation After Port Explosion

Iran's Interior Ministry said it launched an investigation into the port explosion.

The April 26 blast happened as Iran and the United States met in Oman for the third round of talks over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program. A fourth round is scheduled for May 3, also in Oman.

While no Iranian officials have suggested the explosion was due to an attack, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who is leading Tehran's delegation in Oman, said earlier this week that "our security services are on high alert given past instances of attempted sabotage and assassination operations designed to provoke a legitimate response."

Deadly incidents have hit Iranian energy and industrial infrastructure in recent years -- such as gas explosions and oil refinery fires -- with many blamed on negligence.

Tehran, however, has also blamed some incidents on its arch-foe Israel, which has carried out attacks on Iranian soil targeting the country's nuclear program. Last year, Israel also bombed Iran's air defenses.

Iran accused Israel as being behind a February 2024 attack on Iranian gas pipelines, as well as a major cyberattack on the Shahid Rajaei port in May 2020, causing transport chaos for days after crashing the facility's computer system.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on April 27 repeated his calls for "all of" Iran's nuclear infrastructure to be dismantled.

"We are in close contact with the United States. But I said, one way or the other, Iran will not have nuclear weapons," Netanyahu told a news conference.

The Shahid Rajaei port is Iran's largest and it mainly handles large volumes of container traffic and also has oil tanks and other petrochemical facilities.

The port is some 1,050 kilometers southeast of the capital Tehran, on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf where 20 percent of all oil traded globally passes through.

Local officials said that all schools, universities, and offices in Bandar Abbas will be closed on April 27.

With reporting from Reuters and the AP.

Iran, US Officials Meet In Oman For Third Round Of Nuclear Talks

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy to the Middle East, met in Oman for talks on April 26. (combo photo)
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy to the Middle East, met in Oman for talks on April 26. (combo photo)

Iran and the United States met in Oman on April 26 for the third round of talks over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program. A fourth round is scheduled for May 3, with the location yet to be announced.

The talks ran for several hours in Muscat, Omani mediators said of the indirect sessions between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy to the Middle East.

"The negotiations were conducted very seriously and professionally," Araqchi said without providing full details. "We are cautiously optimistic."

Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, who has mediated the two previous round of US-Iran talks in Muscat and Rome, offered a positive note at the end of the negotiations.

Iran and the United States “identified a shared aspiration to reach agreement based on mutual respect and enduring commitments,” Busaidi posted on X after the conclusion of talks in Oman.

“Core principles, objectives and technical concerns were all addressed. Talks will continue next week with a further high-level meeting provisionally scheduled for May 3.”

The talks seek to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of some of the crushing economic sanctions the United States has imposed on the country.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to unleash airstrikes targeting Iran’s program if a deal isn’t reached.

Iranian officials increasingly warn that they could pursue a nuclear weapon with their stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels.

Even With A Nuclear Deal, Iran's Sticking With China

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I'm looking at how Iran is seeking to reassure China that, even with a nuclear deal in place with the United States, Beijing will remain a key partner for Tehran.

What You Need To Know

China Ties A Priority Even Amid Nuclear Progress: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi traveled to China this week, days ahead of a third round of nuclear talks with the United States in Oman. This trip underscored Tehran's commitment to deepening ties with Beijing, signaling that even if a deal is reached with Washington, relations with China will not be compromised.

New Tunnels Grab IAEA's Attention: The Institute for Science and International Security on April 23 revealed, using satellite imagery, that Iran has set up a new security perimeter around a "new, large, deeply buried tunnel complex" near the Natanz nuclear site. The tunnels are located beneath Mount Kolang Gaz La, south of Natanz. Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated that he has repeatedly raised concerns over the tunnels with Iran, but Tehran claims it was not under any obligation to inform the agency. Grossi said it "cannot be excluded" that the tunnels could store undeclared nuclear material.

Looking To Reconnect With European Powers: Araqchi wrote on X that relations with the E3 are at a low point and urged renewed diplomacy, offering visits to Paris, Berlin, and London. His comments on April 24 come as the E3 (Britain, France, Germany) have been sidelined from current Iran-US nuclear talks, with mediation now led by Oman. The E3 have threatened to trigger the reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran by the end of June if no agreement is reached on Tehran's nuclear program.

The Big Issue

Chinese Vice Prime Minister Ding Xuexiang (right) welcomes Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Beijing on April 23.
Chinese Vice Prime Minister Ding Xuexiang (right) welcomes Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Beijing on April 23.

Iran's China Play Won't Change

Araqchi's April 23 visit to Beijing underscored Tehran's commitment to its strategic partnership with China, regardless of progress in nuclear talks with the United States.

Araqchi carried a message from Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to President Xi Jinping, reaffirming that the Iran-China relationship is a long-term priority and will not be affected by developments with Washington. Notably, Araqchi traveled to Russia a week ago, ahead of the second round of talks with the United States, and handed over a message from Khamenei to Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

Both Tehran and Beijing pledged to deepen economic and political ties, fast-track a 25-year cooperation pact, and coordinate closely on regional and global challenges.

Why It Matters: China is Iran's largest trading partner and a crucial diplomatic ally, especially as Tehran faces Western sanctions.

For Iran, China offers investment, technology, and a reliable market for its energy exports, while providing political backing in international forums.

For China, Iran is a vital link in its Belt and Road Initiative and a key player in Middle Eastern energy security.

Damon Golriz, a lecturer at The Hague University of Applied Sciences, said Iran is enhancing its relations with Russia and China because it believes the United States's status as a superpower is on the decline.

He told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Tehran wants to reassure Moscow and Beijing that "agreements with America will not harm Russia and China's interests in Iran."

The message is that "not only will they keep their special place in Iran, but Tehran will also help Russia and China to accelerate America's decline," Golriz added.

China and Russia have both reaped advantages from Iran's tensions with the United States, with Beijing snapping up discounted Iranian oil and Moscow deploying Iranian drones in Ukraine. But if those tensions escalate further, the fallout could be something both powers would rather avoid.

China relies heavily on energy imports, with 16 percent of its oil in March coming from Iran. But its interest in Iran extends beyond oil. If sanctions are lifted, Iran's need for investment in railways and ports, among others, could benefit Chinese companies.

Crucially, over 40 percent of China's energy comes through the Persian Gulf. For Beijing, any military escalation in the region isn't just a geopolitical concern -- it's a direct threat to its energy security and economic stability.

What's Being Said: At the end of his trip, Araqchi wrote on X in Chinese that no matter how the global landscape shifts, "Iran will always see China as a trustworthy and reliable partner."

Taking a dig at the West, Iran's ambassador to China, Mohsen Bakhtiar, said Tehran and Beijing "both stand for international law and multilateralism and see strong-arm tactics as a threat to friendly ties between nations and South-South cooperation."

Expert Opinion: Golriz said the Islamic republic sees its survival as tied to strong relations with Russia and China, which is why Araqchi is tasked not only with securing a deal with Washington to lift sanctions but also with maintaining those strategic ties.

"But I believe this is a very difficult balancing act -- trying to satisfy Russian and Chinese interests on one side, and American demands on the other. Still, if that balance is achieved -- especially by moving closer to the West -- it would ultimately serve the national interest more than the interests of the Islamic republic."

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here . It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Has Trump Moved On From Dismantling Iran's Nuclear Program?

Illustration of a 3D-printed miniature model of U.S. President Donald Trump and the U.S. and Iran flags
Progress in talks has fueled speculation, particularly in Iran, that the administration of US President Donald Trump has dropped its demand for the dismantlement of Tehran's nuclear program in favor of simply capping it. (illustrative image)

High-stakes nuclear talks between the United States and Iran have already entered the technical phase after just two rounds of negotiations mediated by Oman.

A third round of talks, along with separate technical discussions, is scheduled for April 26 in Muscat.

The progress has fueled speculation, particularly in Iran, that the administration of US President Donald Trump has dropped its demand for the dismantlement of Tehran's nuclear program in favor of simply capping it.

But analysts caution that it's far too early to draw such conclusions.

While the shift to technical discussions might suggest a softening of US demands, analysts say dismantlement could still be the underlying objective -- or at least a point of leverage.

"I never thought that dismantlement was a credible goal," said Richard Nephew, who served as the lead sanctions expert on the US team that clinched the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.

"But if this is still in the Trump administration's heads, then the long-term perspective is still bleak."

He noted that technical negotiations also took place during the talks that eventually led to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), even when US demands remained maximalist.

Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), sees the current trajectory not as a concession but as strategic pressure.

"A Trump doctrine on Iran takes shape where it gives Iran a choice: Either you dismantle your nuclear program or the US and/or Israel will dismantle it for you," he said.

Is Iran Running Down The Clock?

Some, particularly proponents of dismantlement, argue that the Islamic republic is dragging out the negotiations to run down the clock on the return of UN sanctions.

Britain, France, and Germany have threatened to trigger the "snapback" mechanism of the JCPOA -- re-imposing UN sanctions against Tehran -- if it fails to reach a deal with the United States by the end of June. However, that mechanism expires in October.

Both analysts agree Iran sees value in prolonging the process to stall pressure, avoid snapback sanctions, or simply buy time.

"There is only a certain amount of pressure that comes to beat that clock, because even after snapback expires, you still have a hostile United States with its national sanctions campaign," Nephew said.

"Iran wants to clinch a decent deal, but they'll take wasted time -- and delayed military action -- as a consolation prize," he added.

Brodsky offered a sharper view, calling the negotiations "a shield" that Tehran uses to protect its nuclear work from further scrutiny or action.

"Iran only loses should the negotiations collapse," he said. "The United States, however, does not need the talks as much as Iran does."

What Would A Good Iran Deal Look Like?

Despite skepticism over whether dismantlement is still a realistic demand, analysts agree a deal that limits Iran's nuclear activities can still be credible, if it includes key safeguards.

"The JCPOA gives us a lot of advice here," said Nephew. "You'd need three things: verification of the cap, physical limitations so that they can't quickly exceed it, and a credible risk of consequences if they cheat."

He noted that while Iran is unlikely to scrap its advanced centrifuges again, as it did under the 2015 deal, "there is still space that a deal could be found."

Brodsky, however, is doubtful that any deal short of full dismantlement can truly prevent Iran from using its nuclear program as leverage.

He views even low-level enrichment -- such as the 3.67 percent limit under the JCPOA -- as a threat.

"Its right to enrich uranium to 3.67 percent under the JCPOA was part of [an] extortion racket," he said, referring to Iran teasing nuclear weapons acquisition.

"The continuation of this negotiation process leads some observers to believe the United States has conceded a right to enrich uranium to Iran," Brodsky said. "I believe the Trump administration is still defining the contours of what an acceptable deal would look like."

Iran Foreign Minister Calls For Resumption Of Dialogue With E3

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi attends a joint press conference with his Russian counterpart following their talks in Moscow on April 18.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi attends a joint press conference with his Russian counterpart following their talks in Moscow on April 18.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi issued a public call for renewed diplomacy with the E3 -- France, Germany, and the UK -- amid mounting tensions and their exclusion from ongoing nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States.

In a post on X on April 24, Araqchi acknowledged that relations with the E3 are “currently down,” describing the status quo as “lose-lose” for both sides.

He emphasized that “placing blame is a futile exercise” and instead urged a return to dialogue and cooperation, not only on nuclear issues but across all areas of mutual interest.

Araqchi offered to visit Paris, Berlin, and London for direct talks.

“The ball is now in the E3's court,” the Iranian foreign minister wrote, “how we act at this critical junction is likely to define the foreseeable future.”

The foreign minister’s outreach comes as the E3 have been sidelined from the latest round of nuclear negotiations, which are being mediated by Oman rather than European powers.

The E3 were key players in earlier efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, but this time they've been sidelined.

The E3 have threatened to trigger the re-imposition of UN sanctions on Iran if no agreement is reached with the United States by the end of June. The “snapback” of UN sanctions is a provision under the effectively defunct 2015 nuclear deal, which formally expires in October.

Iranian state media have welcomed the E3’s exclusion, with The Tehran Times even accusing them -- without evidence -- of backing UN nuclear chief Rafael Grossi for secretary-general in exchange for helping to “demonize” Iran and justify a return to UN sanctions.

Updated

Iranian, US Negotiators Agree On Third Round Of Nuclear Talks

Iranian delegates leave the Omani Embassy in Rome following talks with US officials.
Iranian delegates leave the Omani Embassy in Rome following talks with US officials.

Iranian and US negotiators agreed to hold a third round of high-stakes talks on Iran's nuclear ambitions, a positive signal amid mixed White House messages about potential military action and new demands on Tehran.

The April 19 meetings, held in Rome, were the second time that top-level negotiators from Washington and Tehran had met this month.

There was no immediate comment on the outcome of the Rome talks from the US delegation, which was headed by White House special envoy Steve Witkoff.

But news agencies quoted senior US officials as saying the sides “made very good progress” in the Rome discussions.

"Today, in Rome over four hours in our second round of talks, we made very good progress in our direct and indirect discussions," said an unidentified US official -- who also confirmed a statement by Iran that the two sides agreed to meet again next week.

AP also quoted a US official as confirming that Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi had spoken face to face.

Iran's foreign minister said the two sides had agreed to meet again on April 26 in Oman, where the first round took place.

"I believe technical negotiations at the expert level will begin in Oman on Wednesday [April 23)] and next Saturday we will meet in Oman and review the results of the experts' work to see how close it is to the principles of an agreement," Araqchi told Iranian state TV.

"It was a good meeting, and I can say that the negotiations are moving forward. This time we managed to reach a better understanding on a series of principles and goals," he said.

The United States and other Western countries have long accused Iran of trying to build nuclear weapons.

Tehran has consistently denied the allegations, insisting that its efforts are aimed at civilian purposes, such as electricity generation.

Conflicting Messages

Following his return to the White House in January, US President Donald Trump, who had previously withdrawn from a 2015 accord known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), revived a "maximum pressure" campaign of sanctions against Iran.

Last month, he sent a letter to Iran's supreme leader urging renewed talks while warning of military action if diplomacy failed.

In the past week, Trump and other White House officials have sent sometimes conflicting messages about the US approach to the talks. The White House has ordered heavy, long-range bombers to the region, along with a second aircraft carrier.

"I'm not in a rush" to use the military option, Trump told reporters on April 17. "I think Iran wants to talk."

On April 18, he told reporters: "I'm for stopping Iran, very simply, from having a nuclear weapon. They can't have a nuclear weapon. I want Iran to be great and prosperous and terrific."

In an interview days earlier on Fox News, Witkoff said that the United States was open to Iran having some sort of limited nuclear program.

But he then walked back that position in a social media post, suggesting that the entire program needed to be dismantled.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, meanwhile, said he hoped the Iranian talks would be “fruitful.”

“We would all prefer a peaceful resolution and a lasting one,” he said after meetings in Paris.

But, he added, “It has to be something that not just prevents Iran from having a nuclear weapon now, but in the future as well.”

Israel's Role

Israel’s role in the debate over Iran’s nuclear ambitions is also critical. Israeli officials have vowed to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and Israel has not ruled out an attack on its nuclear facilities in the coming months, according to multiple news reports.

Trump has reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Washington did not support such a move.

Former officials and experts have long said that Israel would need significant US military support –- and weapons –- to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities and stockpiles, some of which are in underground facilities.

With reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, AP, AFP, and Reuters

What You Need To Know Before The Next Round Of US-Iran Talks

An official handout image shows an engineer observing a mechanical test inside Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment plant. (file photo)
An official handout image shows an engineer observing a mechanical test inside Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment plant. (file photo)

Iranian and US negotiators will hold a second round of indirect talks on April 19, a week after concluding discussions that both sides described as “constructive” and “positive.”

While the first round was hosted in Oman, the second will take place in Rome. Omani diplomats will continue to mediate the talks.

Here’s where things stand ahead of the next round of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program -- with the possibility of military action still looming.

Witkoff's Reversal On Enrichment Limits

US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, who is leading the US negotiating team, caused a stir when he publicly reversed his position on Iran’s nuclear program.

On April 15, he said Iran would need to limit its uranium enrichment to 3.67 percent -- the cap set by a 2015 nuclear deal that US President Donald Trump withdrew from in 2018.

But within hours, Witkoff walked back the comment after a backlash from hard-liners who favor dismantling Iran’s program. In a statement on social media, he said Iran “must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program.”

The about-face appeared to confuse Iranian officials. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, Iran's chief negotiator, responded that Washington’s “true position must be clarified at the negotiating table.”

Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear program is peaceful and has ruled out dismantling it.

Jalil Roshandel, director of the Security Studies Program at East Carolina University, told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that the Trump administration is unlikely to maintain its hard-line stance.

“Trump can get a win by accepting the 3.67 percent limit in exchange for other concessions, such as extending the UN sanctions sunset clause set to expire in October,” Roshandel said.

Expanding The Scope Of A Deal

Another sticking point is whether a potential deal will focus solely on Iran’s nuclear activities or also address its missile program.

In an April 15 interview with Fox News, Witkoff said the Rome talks would also cover “verification on weaponization,” including missiles.

But Iran has long refused to negotiate over its missile arsenal, which it considers a vital part of its defense strategy.

The Islamic republic used drones and missiles in two attacks on Israel last year -- the second of which was described as the largest single ballistic missile attack in history.

Mark Fitzpatrick, a former US diplomat and a nonproliferation expert, said expanding the scope of talks could complicate progress.

“It's not surprising that the Trump team would want to put missiles back on the table,” Fitzpatrick told Radio Farda. “But it would make negotiations much more difficult because of Iran's steadfast position that missiles are essential to its defense and deterrence posture.”

European Powers Sidelined

Britain, Germany, and France -- collectively known as the E3 -- are also signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal and played a key role in previous attempts to revive it.

This time, however, they appear to have been completely sidelined. Even though the next round of talks will be held in Italy, it will be Oman -- not the Europeans -- handling mediation.

State-affiliated media in Iran have welcomed the E3’s exclusion. The Tehran Times, an English-language newspaper, claimed -- without evidence -- that the three nations are so frustrated by “their exclusion” that they offered Rafael Grossi, head of the UN nuclear watchdog, their backing to become the next UN chief if he helps “demonize” Iran.

The paper argued that this move is aimed at justifying the return of UN sanctions -- something the E3 have threatened by the end of June if Tehran fails to reach a deal with the United States.

US Military Pressure In The Region

Trump has repeatedly warned that he would resort to military action against Iran’s nuclear program if a deal isn’t reached.

Amid rising tensions -- and a US bombing campaign targeting Tehran’s allies in Yemen -- Washington is bolstering its military presence in the Middle East.

Last month, the United States dispatched at least six B-2 bombers to a joint US-British military base on Diego Garcia, a small island in the Indian Ocean. This week, the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier was sent to reinforce the USS Harry S. Truman already stationed in the region.

Analysts believe Iran takes Trump’s threats seriously, but it remains unclear whether Tehran is willing to risk air strikes on its key nuclear sites.

Trump has said Israel would play a leading role in any such attack.

According to The New York Times, Israel had been preparing to launch air strikes against Iran -- with US assistance -- as early as May, but was held back by Trump in favor of pursuing diplomacy.

With reporting by Reza Jamali and Hannah Kaviani of RFE/RL’s Radio Farda

Iranian Foreign Minister Calls For Russian Support In Nuclear Talks

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (right) and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqhchi (left) arrive for a joint press conference following talks in Moscow on April 18.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (right) and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqhchi (left) arrive for a joint press conference following talks in Moscow on April 18.

Iran’s foreign minister has called for Russia to play a role in high-stakes negotiations over the fate of Tehran’s nuclear programs, as he cast doubt on US intentions ahead a new round of talks.

Speaking on April 18 alongside Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Abbas Araqchi said he still believed an agreement was possible.

The Iranian diplomat was set to meet with White House special envoy Steve Witkoff in Rome on April 19, for a second round of talks over Iran’s atomic programs.

"Although we have serious doubts about the intentions and motivations of the American side, in any case we will participate in tomorrow's negotiations," Araqchi said during a joint appearance in Moscow.

Last week’s first round of talks in Oman was the highest-level negotiations between Tehran and Washington since US President Donald Trump abandoned a landmark nuclear deal in 2018.

Western countries, including the United States, have long accused Iran of trying to build nuclear weapons. Tehran has consistently denied the allegations, insisting that its efforts are aimed at civilian purposes, like electricity generation.

Earlier in the week, Witkoff called for an end to all of Iran’s uranium enrichment programs. International inspectors say Tehran has managed to refine its uranium stocks to 60 percent -- which is close to the threshold at which uranium is considered weapons-grade.

Araqchi responded on April 16, saying that Iran's enrichment efforts were not up for discussion.

"If there is similar willingness on the other side, and they refrain from making unreasonable and unrealistic demands, I believe reaching an agreement is likely," Araghchi said.

Since taking office in January, Trump has ratcheted up the pressure on Iran, including by sending more US Air Force and naval assets to the region. But he’s also forced direct talks with Iranian officials.

“I’m not asking for much,” Trump said in comments earlier this month, “but they can’t have a nuclear weapon.”

With reporting by Reuters

US Air Strikes Targeting Yemeni Oil Port; Houthis Say Attack Killed 20 People

Oil tanks burn at the port in Hodeidah, Yemen, in July. (file photo)
Oil tanks burn at the port in Hodeidah, Yemen, in July. (file photo)

The US military said it destroyed a key Yemeni fuel port held by Houthi rebels, who said the air strikes also killed 20 people and wounded 50 others.

The US military’s Central Command said its forces took action on the port of Ras Isa to eliminate a source of fuel for the Iran-backed Houthi rebels and deprive them of revenue.

“The objective of these strikes was to degrade the economic source of power of the Houthis, who continue to exploit and bring great pain upon their fellow countrymen,” Centcom said in a statement.

“This strike was not intended to harm the people of Yemen, who rightly want to throw off the yoke of Houthi subjugation and live peacefully,” Centcom said.

The US air strikes have hammered the Houthis in a campaign launched by President Donald Trump on March 15 to end their attacks on civilian shipping and military vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Houthi attacks have hampered shipping through the Suez Canal -- a vital route for world seaborne traffic -- forcing many companies to send their ships around the tip of southern Africa.

The Houthis denounced the attack.

“This completely unjustified aggression represents a flagrant violation of Yemen’s sovereignty and independence and a direct targeting of the entire Yemeni people,” the Houthis said in a statement carried by the Houthi-controlled SABA news agency. “It targets a vital civilian facility that has served the Yemeni people for decades.”

Health Ministry spokesman Anees Alasbahi said the preliminary death toll stood at 20, including five paramedics.

There were also "50 wounded workers and employees at the Ras Issa oil port, following the American aggression," he said on X.

"The death toll is likely to rise as body parts are still being identified," he added.

The number of dead represented one of the highest reported death tolls since Trump vowed that military action against the rebels would continue until they are no longer a threat to shipping.

The Ras Isa port lies along the west coast of Yemen on the Red Sea.

Centcom said ships have continued to supply fuel via the port despite Washington designating the rebels a foreign terrorist organization earlier this year. The Centcom statement did not specify the source of the fuel.

US State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce commented earlier on April 17 about China's participation in Yemen. Bruce told journalists that the Chinese satellite firm Chang Guang Satellite Technology Company was "directly supporting” the Houthis.

Bruce said their actions and Beijing's support of the company, “is yet another example of China's empty claims to support peace.”

With reporting by AP and Reuters

Iran Says It's Ready To Address US Concerns But Not Negotiate Nuclear Enrichment

President Masud Pezeshkian (second right) and Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran chief Mohammad Eslami (right) on the National Day of Nuclear Technology in Tehran on April 9
President Masud Pezeshkian (second right) and Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran chief Mohammad Eslami (right) on the National Day of Nuclear Technology in Tehran on April 9

Tehran is ready to ease US concerns over its nuclear activities but scrapping uranium enrichment is off the table, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said as the two sides prepare for a second round of talks this weekend over Iran's nuclear program.

Araqchi told reporters after a weekly cabinet meeting in Tehran on April 16 that Iran's enrichment is a "real, accepted matter."

"We're ready to build confidence in response to possible concerns, but the principle of enrichment is nonnegotiable," he said, days ahead of the second round of talks with the United States on April 19, which Iran's state broadcaster announced would take place in the Italian capital, Rome, and not in Oman as previously thought.

Araqchi's comments came in response to a statement by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff on April 15 saying Iran "must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program."

But hours earlier, Witkoff had told Fox News that the Donald Trump administration was seeking to cap Iran's uranium enrichment at 3.67 percent -- the limit set in the 2015 nuclear deal that Trump abrogated in 2018.

"Iran must not possess nuclear weapons, and it should not enrich uranium beyond 3.67 percent," Witkoff said.

His apparent reversal came after a conservative backlash on social media, with the administration being accused of repackaging the 2015 deal, which is formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

"We applaud Special Envoy Witkoff's statement," wrote Mark Wallace, chief executive of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), a US-based nonprofit, after Witkoff changed his tone.

"It is clear under the Trump Doctrine that Iran must verifiably dismantle its nuclear program or the US and Israel will do so," said Wallace, a former US diplomat.

Araqchi, who will travel to Moscow on April 17, noted Witkoff had made "different comments" since the conclusion of the first round of talks but added Washington's "true position must be clarified at the negotiating table."

Trump has made it clear Iran cannot be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons, but he has not explicitly commented on whether that involves curbing Iran's nuclear program or fully dismantling it. In the meantime, his administration has been sending out mixed messages.

Quoting an unnamed US official, the Axios news website on April 16 attributed the lack of clarity to ongoing internal discussions.

"The Iran policy is not very clear mainly because it is still being figured out. It is tricky because it's a highly politically charged issue," the official said, according to Axios.

Former US diplomat and nonproliferation expert Mark Fitzpatrick said a deal would be unlikely unless the Trump administration relaxed its position.

"Trump would have to change the position of no enrichment to a position of low enrichment," he told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

"Iran is not going to go to a 'no enrichment' and it's certainly not going to accept it, but it would be willing to negotiate the levels of enrichment. And yes, this would be like the negotiations under the JCPOA," he added.

With reporting by Hannah Kaviani of RFE/RL's Radio Farda

In Couched Comments, Khamenei Backs Iran-US Nuclear Talks

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addresses a group of top officials in Tehran on April 15.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addresses a group of top officials in Tehran on April 15.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to back the continuation of nuclear discussions between Tehran and Washington, though he said he is neither "overly optimistic nor overly pessimistic" about the talks as they head toward a second round this weekend.

In his first public comments on the initiation of talks between Iran and the United States last weekend, Khamenei on April 15 said Iranian negotiators need to proceed with caution.

"A decision was made [to enter the talks] and has been carried out well in the initial steps. Going forward, we need to move carefully. Our red lines -- and the other side's -- are clearly defined," Khamenei said at a gathering of the senior members of the three branches of power.

"The negotiations may or may not lead to a result. We are neither very optimistic nor very pessimistic about these talks. Of course, we are very pessimistic about the other side, but we are optimistic about our own capabilities," he added.

Khamenei, who has the final say on all state matters, urged officials "not to tie the country's affairs" to the negotiations.

The first round of talks, which were mostly carried out indirectly, were held in Muscat on April 12, with the next round scheduled for April 19.

Italy was initially set to host the second round, but Iran later said Oman would continue to host the talks. None of the parties involved have elaborated on why the venue was changed.

US Envoy Says Any Deal With Iran Needs Proof Of Nuclear Enrichment Purposes

This combination of pictures shows US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff (L) and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. (file photo)
This combination of pictures shows US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff (L) and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. (file photo)

US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said on April 14 that any diplomatic agreement reached with Iran will be centered on details related to verification of the country's uranium enrichment and weapons programs.

"This is going to be much about verification on the enrichment program, and then ultimately verification on weaponization," Witkoff said in an interview on Fox News. "That includes missiles, the type of missiles that they have stockpiled there, and it includes the trigger for a bomb."

Tehran and Washington held the first round of nuclear talks over the weekend in Oman, both saying afterward that the talks were "positive" and "constructive."

The Iranian Foreign Ministry on April 14 said a second round of talks between the United States and Iran will be held in Oman on April 19.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei was quoted by Iranian state news agency IRNA as saying that it was decided that Muscat will continue to host the talks.

The comment contradicted a statement by Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, who said the talks would be held in Rome. Tajani said Italy received the request from the interested parties and announced Rome would be the venue.

Tehran also confirmed on April 14 that Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will visit Moscow ahead of the next round of talks.

Separately, Iran confirmed on April 13 that Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), will travel to Iran on April 16.

Araqchi met Witkoff met briefly after the first round of talks ended, adding to optimism relations between the two countries have taken a step forward.

US President Donald Trump has said he wants to ensure Iran will never acquire nuclear weapons. Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful and wants a deal that leads to the lifting of sanctions that have battered its economy.

Trump has said that in the absence of a deal, there will be military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, with potential Israeli involvement.

Estimates suggest Iran could enrich sufficient uranium for a single bomb in less than a week and enough for several bombs within a month.

Meanwhile, the European Union on April 13 introduced sanctions on seven Iranian prison and judicial officials over Tehran's detention of nationals from the bloc.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the sanctions were in response to Iran's "state-sponsored hostage-taking" of European citizens.

On Iran's nuclear program, she said there was a need for a swift resolution because the October deadline to reimpose UN sanctions on Tehran is approaching.

European powers have warned Iran that they will trigger the 2015 nuclear deal's "snapback mechanism" to reimpose UN sanctions if it fails to reach a new deal with the United States.

With reporting by AP and AFP

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