Nearly two months after Tehran halted cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN's nuclear watchdog has sent inspectors back to Iran just as the country faces the possible re-imposition of sweeping international sanctions.
Iran suspended inspections in July, citing the US and Israeli bombing of key facilities in June. But the inspectors' return is mostly symbolic.
For now, the IAEA's mission -- confirmed by Director General Rafael Grossi -- is largely preparatory, focusing on "practical modalities" for restoring monitoring at scattered facilities, some of which were heavily damaged in the strikes.
Without broader access and cooperation, it is unlikely to delay the looming "snapback" of UN sanctions, which European powers plan to trigger at the end of the month.
Even if the Iran permits site visits, access to sensitive locations such as Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan -- all struck by the US -- may remain off-limits, limiting the IAEA's ability to verify Iran's nuclear activities.
A deeper obstacle is Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium. Roughly 400 kilograms enriched close to weapons-grade remain unaccounted for, raising alarm in Western capitals.
The E3 -- Britain, France, and Germany -- have made clear that continued sanction relief hinges on three conditions: full resumption of inspections, transparent accounting of uranium stockpiles, and credible engagement in diplomacy with Washington. On the last point, Iran has repeatedly, including just last weekend, refused direct talks with the United States.
On August 27, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said future cooperation with the IAEA would likely end should the E3 nations trigger the snapback sanctions.
"If this action is taken, the path of interaction we have now opened with the International Atomic Energy Agency will also be completely affected and will probably stop," Gharibabadi told state television.
Also on state TV, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arahchi said that "no final text has been approved on the new cooperation framework with the IAEA and views are being exchanged."
Behnam Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda it was "highly unlikely" the Europeans would delay triggering snapback sanctions.
"The only way that could happen," he said, "is if inspectors can fully resume monitoring and if there's real political will in Tehran for diplomacy. In that case, sanctions could be postponed for three to six months…. But I see that as highly unlikely."
Compounding matters is Iran's deep mistrust of the IAEA, which it accuses of political bias and of failing to condemn Israeli and US military actions. Hardline outlets have gone further, with the newspaper Kayhan even calling for Grossi to be "tried and executed" if he sets foot in Iran.
