Courting The Taliban, China, India, And Russia Make Overtures

Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers were shunned by foreign governments after seizing power in 2021 but have recently notched up some big wins in their diplomatic efforts to forge international ties.

This week, Indian special envoy Anand Prakash was in Kabul for talks with senior Taliban leaders on boosting political and trade links.

That came after Uzbek Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov hosted a Taliban delegation in Tashkent to talk about a proposed trans-Afghan rail link.

And last week, in the biggest win of all, Russia removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations and agreed that ambassadors would be appointed in Kabul and Moscow.

Nobody has recognized the Taliban regime, yet. The militant rulers have been widely criticized for widespread human rights violations, particularly against women and girls.

But things are moving toward their ultimate goal of acceptance in international circles.

“There’s a growing feeling that the great powers are starting to compete among themselves to recognize a terrorist organization,” Afghan political analyst Fakhim Kukhdomani told RFE/RL’s Current Time.

China became the first country to accept a Taliban-appointed ambassador in January 2024. It has been edging talks forward on infrastructure and investment as part of its Belt and Road Initiative.

Is 2025 The Year Chinese Investments Take Off In Afghanistan?

What Does Russia Want In Afghanistan?

Russia has also been seeking to develop economic interests in Afghanistan, especially in the mining and energy sectors. It did, in fact, keep its embassy in Kabul open, merely downgrading it in name after the Taliban seized power.

“The Russian intelligence services never cut their contacts with Taliban commanders,” said Kukhdomani.

On security, Russia’s main interest is about combatting the Islamic State–Khorasan group, which claimed responsibility for the deadly Crocus City Hall terrorist attack in March 2024.

Aleksei Zakharov, at the Observer Research Foundation (OSR), a Delhi-based think tank, also says that Russia is pursuing an economic agenda in Afghanistan.

“Russian and Taliban representatives are expected to sign a contract transitioning 50 million cubic meters of LPG (liquified petroleum gas) at the KazanForum in May 2025,” he wrote on April 28.

This would be aimed at markets in south and southeast Asia.

“However, the capacity of the route through Afghanistan and security issues may ultimately limit the agreement’s implementation,” added Zakharov.

There may be similar issues facing the above-mentioned rail project, seeking to create a transit corridor from Russia, through Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, to Pakistan.

India Pakistan Tensions

Taliban relations with its southern neighbor are strained, as Islamabad accuses the Taliban of sheltering militants from Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP). It said its army had killed 54 fighters “trying to infiltrate” across the border on April 27.

Pakistan has deported some 100,000 Afghan refugees in recent weeks, accusing them of being linked to terrorism and drug smuggling.

These tensions give an added security dynamic to India’s attempts to warm ties, as it faces off with Pakistan following the deadly militant attack in Kashmir on April 22.

"India has keenly monitored the fluctuating relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan," Najib Azar, lecturer in global affairs at Wisconsin University, told RFE/RL on April 29.

"[It is] attempting to fill the void and mitigate the anti-Indian sentiments that Pakistan has fostered within the Taliban," added Azar, who was a spokesman for the pre-Taliban Afghan government.

Do Western Countries Talk To The Taliban?

Western powers have been the most strident in distancing themselves from the Taliban, following the withdrawal of their forces in 2021. They have also been the most outspoken in their criticism of the Taliban’s human rights abuses.

But here, too, there’s movement.

A British government report in March said it was pursuing a policy of “limited and pragmatic” engagement with Taliban officials via its embassy in Qatar.

The incoming German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has called for direct talks with the Taliban leadership to enable deportations of Afghans. A foreign policy spokesman for his Christian Democrats, Juergen Hardt, told RFE/RL in February “the truth is that they are in power.”

“There's also the question of recognition,” he added.

“I think there should be a common position of the European Union how to handle that. Not yet, but probably under special circumstances.”

US officials have already held direct talks. Last month, they were in Kabul to secure the release of Americans held there. In return, Washington lifted the bounties on three members of the Haqqani network, including the Taliban’s interior minister.

“It seems to me that Moscow’s final decision to remove the Taliban from the list of terrorist organizations was taken after Washington removed the bounties,” said Afghan political analyst Fakhim Kukhdomani.

Two Americans were released. But there’s a way to go. Several are still detained, while the United States still designates both the Taliban and the Haqqani network as terrorist organizations.

Dangers For The Taliban

Former spokesman Najib Azad says there are also risks for the Taliban as it reaches out for better relations with multiple nations.

"The risk lies in allowing global and regional powers to exploit Afghanistan as a battleground for their rivalries, as has been the case over the past fifty years," said.

"Given the Taliban's inability to maintain a balanced political stance with these powers, they risk becoming a catalyst for renewed instability in the region once again."