Iranian Nobel Laureate: Islamic Republic Has 'No Future But Collapse'

Shirin Ebadi speaks during an International Women's Day event in Paris in March 2024.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has claimed a recent opposition conference in Brussels was tied to the Iran-Israel war and part of a US-backed plan to replace the Islamic republic.

Speaking on August 24, he alleged that the participants even discussed appointing a monarch.

Iranian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi, who was a speaker at the June 14 conference, rejected Khamenei’s assertions but suggested that he was right to be worried about the future of the Islamic republic.

“What was discussed at the conference was that the political establishment is incapable and must be toppled by people, and for that there is no way but unity among the opposition,” Ebadi told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda.

Iranian opposition factions have long struggled to unite due to deep ideological differences and competing visions for Iran’s future. But Ebadi, a lawyer and human rights activist, insisted that “there has been a lot of progress” on the unity front, which she argued is what worries the supreme leader.

“This is why Khamenei has rushed out of his bunker to portray himself as the man in charge who can do whatever he wants, but nobody’s buying it,” the Nobel peace prize winner said on August 25.

Khamenei, who also serves as the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, was criticized after he vanished from public view once Israel launched air strikes against Iran on June 13. His disappearance was fueled by credible reports Israel had targeted him for assassination. The New York Times reported he outlined succession plans in case of his death.

SEE ALSO: Khamenei's Bunker Leadership: What Does It Mean For Iran's Future?

Shortly after Khamenei’s speech, Iranian state TV broadcasted a report claiming that the gathering took place secretly in Brussels -- but the event was livestreamed and later uploaded to YouTube.

Ebadi said organizers spent two months planning the event and that the date -- it was held a day after the start of the 12-day war -- was coincidental.

She also shrugged off the allegation that it was a “secret” meeting, charging that Khamenei was either tricked into believing that it was a clandestine gathering or is intentionally portraying it as such to “fool” the population.

Need For Unity

Circling back to the topic of unity among the Iranian opposition, Ebadi said “no group can individually” challenge and topple the clerical establishment.

Iran’s opposition faces chronic disunity because its main factions -- ranging from monarchists and secular republicans to leftists, and representatives of various ethnic groups -- deeply disagree on Iran’s future political system, struggle with mutual suspicion and past rivalries, and often prioritize their own agendas and leadership claims over cooperation.

Attempts at alliance-building are frequently undermined by lack of trust, reluctance to compromise, and concerns about foreign influence, leading to fractured activism and limited impact on mobilizing broad-based resistance to the current regime.

“They have to stop fighting and join forces instead,” Ebadi said.

She asserted that the Islamic republic, which has been in existence since 1979, is at “its weakest” and suffering from domestic crises, economic pressures, and regional setbacks.

“The system has no future other than collapse,” said Ebadi.

SEE ALSO: As Deadline Looms, What Are 'Snapback' Sanctions On Iran?

And matters could go from bad to worse for Iran amid the imminent return of UN sanctions.

European powers have warned that they will trigger the so-called “snapback” mechanism of the moribund 2015 Iran nuclear deal by the end of August to reinstate UN sanctions unless Tehran reaches an agreement with Washington over its nuclear program.

Iranian diplomats will meet their counterparts from France, Germany, and the United Kingdom on August 26 in a last-ditch attempt to prevent the triggering of the “snapback” process.

In his speech, Khamenei again rejected direct talks with the United States despite growing calls in Iran to negotiate with the Trump administration, charging that the White House merely wanted to ensure that Tehran “takes orders” from Washington.